This is based on the scenario of the Demos retaining all their current seats and possibly winning the Rakahanga and Penrhyn seats. If so, that comes to 11 seats.
I am basing the possibility of winning the latter seats on the fact that Tina Browne is the leader of the Demos and that her late father was the former rep there; and that Wilkie Rasmussen held Penrhyn and could win it back this time around.
On the other hand, if the current government members are returned (apart from Rakahanga and Penrhyn), the Cook Islands Party will also have 11 seats.
Perhaps the tie-breaker would be if the Demos could win Matavera from the CIP, given that it is a marginal seat that tends to change allegiances for no particular reason in past elections. However, Minister Turepu seems to be doing a good job and I have not heard any negative feedback from his village about him.
Or perhaps the Demos might win back RAPPA, except that minister Nicholas also seems quite popular in his village.
Another Political Observer
(Name and address supplied)